Tesla admits HW3 to HW4 upgrade needed - yet another roadblock on the never-ending path to full self-driving

We are having a bit of a "Tesla Day" but that's to be expected since the company has just released its Q4 results, followed by the call with Elon Musk. Tesla's Full Self-Driving has been a topic of much debate and anticipation, and while the company has made significant progress in autonomous driving technology, the promised end result is not even on the horizon.

Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, finally acknowledged that the company's HW3 self-driving computers, found in many Tesla vehicles, will need to be replaced to achieve the promised FSD capabilities. This comes after months of speculation and uncertainty surrounding the feasibility of achieving full autonomy on the existing hardware.

Tesla plans to offer free replacements for HW3 computers to customers who purchased the FSD package, which currently costs up to $15,000 in the US. This raises questions about the company's previous claims that all cars produced since 2016 are capable of FSD. Tesla has faced legal challenges in the past for similar claims regarding its HW2.5 computers, and this latest announcement will most certainly lead to more disputes.

The replacement process itself is a logistical nightmare. Tesla will need to design a new computer specifically for retrofitting HW3 vehicles, as the HW4 computer found in its latest models is not compatible. This will need significant resources and time, pushing back the promise of an actual FSD for many Tesla owners.

Musk remains optimistic about Tesla's autonomous future, and predicts that the company will "go ballistic" in the coming years, with significant advancements in FSD leading to an "epic 2026 and a ridiculously good '27 and '28." If it all sounds familiar to you, that's because these pronouncements echo promises made in the past. Same promises - different dates.

Musk's timeline for full autonomy has shifted repeatedly, with predictions dating back to 2014. Tesla's FSD efforts are facing increasing competition from other players in the autonomous driving space. Companies like Waymo have already begun deploying robotaxi services in select cities, putting Tesla at the back of the list.

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