Tesla's order backlog drops to 163,000 in just one week

In early December, Tesla's projected global electric vehicle order backlog reached its lowest level in over a year as it continued to decline rapidly.

According to Troy Teslike, a reliable source of Tesla statistics and estimates, the expected order backlog as of December 8, 2022 was around 163,000, which represents a decrease of 27,000 or 14% in just one week from November 30 (190,000).

Hi everybody. Based on my calculation, Tesla's global order backlog was 163K on 8 Dec, down from 190K on 30 Nov.

The drop happened mostly in Europe where deliveries increased because more ships arrived from China.

Part 1/3 pic.twitter.com/UOU0LLur4F

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 23, 2022

For comparison, the order backlog was close to 300,000 at the end of September and approximately 400,000 at the end of August. From March to July, it was close to 500,000. Since July, the value has dropped by more than 300,000, representing a reduction of two-thirds.

According to the research, the quantity of 163,000 units is equivalent to almost forty days' worth of production capacity. On November 30, it was estimated to be 44 days; on October 6, it was estimated to be 70 days; and on September 21, it was estimated to be 78 days.

If current trends continue, Tesla is likely to end the year 2022 with a very low order backlog, potentially below 100,000 and 30 days' worth of production. This projection is based on the assumption that current conditions will remain unchanged. It suggests that Tesla is currently producing a significantly larger number of electric vehicles than it is selling.

Here is a chart that shows how the order backlog has changed in Europe, China, and the US.

A new calculation that I posted today can be found here: https://t.co/Wq3oUhH0UX

Part 2/3 pic.twitter.com/DchpM3ZW0g

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 23, 2022

One interesting finding was that the forecasted order backlog also started to decline in Europe as more ships arrived from China (Shanghai is Tesla's primary export hub). This was a surprising development. In addition, the European factory in Germany has been ramping up production to new record levels.

The Chinese market was the first of the three primary markets to become saturated. Then, in the United States, there were also shifts in demand (though there were different contributing factors, such as changes in the federal tax credit incentive that prompted some customers to delay their purchases).

According to the data, the only models of Tesla vehicles in the United States that still have noticeable waiting periods are the most popular ones (one month or longer). These include the Model 3 Long Range, Model Y Long Range, Model S Long Range, and Model X Long Range.

Here is a detailed table. The calculation is based on the production rate of each model and the wait times for new orders shown on Tesla's website

Part 3/3 pic.twitter.com/7yGo2nUfiS

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 23, 2022

The expected waiting periods for all Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in China are now less than two weeks on average, while in Europe the average waiting time is still around two months.

We expect significant changes in the coming months due to the uncertain nature of the situation. Tesla's success in the early months of 2023 will depend on their pricing strategy and the potential boost from the increased federal tax credit under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has increased by $7,500.

Via