Tesla just published a 41-page document that reveals the thinking behind its Master Plan Part 3. The document makes for fascinating reading, it contains a lot of technicalities and it explains how and why Tesla decided on its battery and sustainability strategies. Among the details though, three new electric cars are hiding in plain sight.
In a chapter dedicated to batteries for transportation, Tesla talks about a future compact vehicle, a commercial (and passenger) van, and a bus. While the document doesn’t disclose any details about the vehicles, the table that goes with it outlines not only the planned battery capacity for each of the vehicles but it shows the predicted sales volumes as well.
Thanks to that table we now know that the smallest Tesla will have an LFP battery pack with a capacity of 53 kWh. The lithium iron phosphate batteries have lower energy density but are significantly cheaper to manufacture and are considered to be a perfect fit for cars that need a smaller range.
Tesla is planning to manufacture 42 million of the Model 2 over its lifetime. 2 million units should come from the newest Gigafactory in Mexico with the remainder coming from Shanghai and Berlin. Those two factories can deliver 1 million vehicles a year but already are manufacturing Model 3 and Model Y.
The commercial and passenger van that Tesla mentions in the document is quite an interesting entry. The company expects to sell 10 million of those vehicles over their lifetime which isn’t really a high number for a commercial fleet. Tesla will fit them with a 100 kWh lithium-ion battery pack with a nickel-manganese cathode.
The final new electric vehicle from Tesla is a bus. The company will fit it with a 300 kWh LFP battery pack and plans to sell 1 million units of it. Considering that Tesla estimates the global fleet to be around 5 million vehicles, selling 20% of them sounds like an ambitious goal. Then again - Tesla has the technology, it needs to build more factories and then it can achieve those goals.
Tesla's predictions are quite interesting, they show the company is planning for the future and is preparing new models. We can see Tesla’s plans clear as day and while buses and commercial vehicles may not be as interesting as the Model 2, they are vital for the company. The more vehicles Tesla makes, the cheaper the smallest one gets and the sub-$25,000 electric car becomes reality.
Although, the sub-$25,000 electric car already exists. It’s the Chevy Bolt, both the EV and EUV versions sell for well below the magic figure, thanks to the EV tax credit of course.
That's why make all sense for Elon Musk buy Sigma lithium company.
This document only states the average battery capacity for a small car category as viewed by Tesla, not necessarily the model 2's capacity as I suspect the compact car will have a range of capacities like the model 3 and Y. Also the 42MM units ...
Tesla thinks globally.. Rivian is producing trucks for a small subset of global buyers. Large pickup trucks and SUVs are not the most popular cars worldwide. Small cars are the bread and butter of the global fleet.. If you haven't read the cha...