Tesla publishes Q1 2026 analyst estimates, shows a modest uptick from last year

Tesla published its Q1 2026 delivery consensus that compiles data from 23 sell-side sources, and it shows a modest 8% increase compared to Q1 2025. The company is projected to sell 365,645 vehicles, up from 336,681 cars sold last year, around the same time.

Now, while the 8% increase in sales sounds good on paper, when you put it into context, the prognosis for 2026 is rather bleak. Firstly, the Q1 2026 estimates suggest a decline by 13% from Q4 2025 and an even larger decline compared to Q3 2025. The carmaker shipped 497,120 units in Q3 2025 and 418,227 in Q4 2025.

That marks a second consecutive quarterly decline. Additionally, the Q1 2025 comparison is somewhat misleading. Last year's first quarter was the company's weakest quarter in years as the company paused Model Y and Cybertruck production to adjust and upgrade its production lines to accommodate the refreshed Model Y "Juniper".

But that's only half of the story. Elon Musk's controversial persona and political views have done irreparable damage to the company, and it shows. BYD has outsold Tesla in Europe for two consecutive months, and the gap is increasing too.

The report Tesla published predicts 1,689,691 deliveries for full-year 2026, which will be a 3.3% increase from the 1,635,129 sales in 2025, but still well below its 2023 peak when the company shipped 1.81 million cars.

Source